Index:
2024 ⇑
Official Reports
Groenewald P., N. Nannan, J.D. Joubert, T. Glass, M. Cheyip, M. Maqungo, N. Funani, N. Zinyakatira, O. Awotiwon, B. Nojilana, N. Kallis, R. Laubscher, F. Bezuidenhout, C. Kabudula, L. Martin, K. Kahn, J. Price, C. Lombard, D. Morof, E. Nichols, C. Rao, D. Bradshaw (2024 - in final production). South African National Cause-of-Death Validation Project: Agreement and corrected cause specific profiles based on data linkage. Cape Town. South African Medical Research Council.
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2024). Developing an Agenda for Population Aging and Social Research in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs): Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC. The National Academies Press. [ DOI ]
Articles Published
Chu, Y., M. Marston, A. Dube, C. Festo, E. Geubbels, S. Gregson, K. Herbst, C. Kabudula, K. Kahn, T. Lutalo, L. Moorhouse, R. Newton, C. Nyamukapa, R. Makanga, E. Slaymaker, M. Urassa, A. Ziraba, C. Calvert, (2024). Temporal Changes in Cause of Death Among Adolescents and Adults in Six Countries in Eastern And Southern Africa: A Multi-Country Cohort Study using Verbal Autopsy Data. Lancet Global Health 12:e1278–87. [ DOI ]
Houle, B., C.W. Kabudula, S.A. Mojola, N. Angotti, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, D. Gareta, K. Herbst, , J. Menken, and V. Canudas-Romo (2024 - in press). Mortality Variability and Differentials By Age and Causes of Death in Rural South Africa, 1994–2018. BMJ Global Health. 9:e013539. [ DOI ]
Shao-Tzu, Y., B. Houle, E. Schatz, N. Angotti, C.W. Kabudula, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, , J. Menken, and S.A. Mojola (2024). Understanding Household Dynamics from the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study from a Rural South African Setting. Demography 11146140. [ DOI ]
Li, Z.R., Z. Wu, I. Chen, and . (2024). Bayesian Nested Latent Class Models For Cause-of-death Assignment Using Verbal Autopsies Across Multiple Domains. Annals of Applied Statistics. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
Kunihama, T., Z.R. Li, , and T.H. McCormick (2024). Bayesian Analysis of Verbal Autopsy Data Using Factor Models With Age- And Sex-Dependent Associations Between Symptoms. arXiv Preprint arXiv:2403.12288. [ PDF ]
2023 ⇑
Articles Published
Groenewald, P., J. Thomas, , D. Morof, J. Joubert, C. Kabudula, Z. Li, and D. Bradshaw (2023). Agreement Between Cause Of Death Assignment By Computer-coded Verbal Autopsy Methods And Physician Coding Of Verbal Autopsy Interviews In South Africa. Global Health Action 16 (1). [ DOI ]
Houle, B., C.W. Kabudula, D. Gareta, K. Herbst, and (2023). Household Structure, Composition, and Child Mortality in the Unfolding Antiretroviral Therapy Era in Rural South Africa: Comparative Evidence from Population Surveillance, 2000-2015. BMJ Open 13:e070388. [ DOI ]
Li, Z., J. Thomas, E. Choi, T.H. McCormick, and (2023). The openVA Toolkit for Verbal Autopsies. The R Journal. [ Link ]
2022 ⇑
Articles Published
Houle, B., C.W. Kabudula, A.M. Tilstra, S.A. Mojola, E. Schatz, , N. Angotti, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, and J. Menken (2022). Twin Epidemics: The Effects of HIV and Systolic Blood Pressure on Mortality Risk in Rural South Africa, 2010-2019. BMC Public Health 22 (387). [ DOI ]
Houle, B., C.W. Kabudula, A.M. Tilstra, S.A. Mojola, E. Schatz, , N. Angotti, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, and J. Menken (2022). Data to Support: Twin Epidemics: The Effects of HIV and Systolic Blood Pressure on Mortality Risk in Rural South Africa, 2010-2019. DataFirst (African Research Replication and Reproducibility Data). [ Download Data ]
2021 ⇑
Articles Published
Herbst, K., S. Juvekar, M. Jasseh, Y. Berhane, N. T. K. Chuk, J. Seeley, O. Sankoh, and M. Collinson (2021). Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Low- and Middle-income Countries: History, State of the Art and Future Prospects. Global Health Action 14 (sup1). [ DOI ]
Chandramohan, D., E. Fottrell, J. Leitao, E. Nichols, , C. Alsokhn, D. C. Munoz, C. AbouZahr, A. Di Pasquale, R. Mswia, E. Choi, F. Baiden, J. Thomas, I. Lyatuu, Z. Li, P. Larbi-Debrah, Y. Chu, S. Cheburet, O. Sankoh, A. M. Badr, D. M. Fat, P. Setel, R. Jakob, D. de Savigny (2021). Estimating Causes of Death Where There Is No Medical Certification: Evolution and State of the Art of Verbal Autopsy. Global Health Action 14 (sup1). [ DOI ]
Norris Turner, A., D. Kline, A. Norris, W.G. Phillips, E. Root, J. Wakefield, Z. Li, S. Lemeshow, M. Spahnie, A. Luff, Y. Chu, M.K. Francis, M. Gallo, P. Chakraborty, M. Lindstrom, G. Lozanski, W. Miller, (2021). Prevalence of Current and Past COVID-19 in Ohio Adults. 50-60 Annals of Epidemiology 67, 50-60. [ DOI ]
Kline, D., Z. Li, Y. Chu, J. Wakefield, W.C. Miller, A. Norris Turner, and (2021). Estimating Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Ohio: A Bayesian Multilevel Poststratification Approach with Multiple Diagnostic Tests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (26), e2023947118. [ DOI ]
, and A. Norris Turner (2021). Invited Commentary: Monitoring Epidemics: Lessons from Measuring Population Prevalence of the Coronavirus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (9), e2026412118. [ DOI ]
Houle, B., C. Kabudula, A. Stein, D. Gareta, K. Herbst, and (2021). Linking the timing of a mother's and child's death: Comparative evidence from two rural South African population-based surveillance studies, 2000–2015. PLoS ONE 16 (2), e0246671. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
Li, Z. R., Z. Wu, I. Chen, and (2021). Bayesian Nested Latent Class Models for Cause-of-Death Assignment using Verbal Autopsies Across Multiple Domains. arXiv Preprint arXiv:2112.12186. [ PDF ]
(2021). Health and demographic surveillance systems and the 2030 agenda: Sustainable development goals. arXiv Preprint arXiv:2103.03910. [ PDF ]
Li, Z.R., J. Thomas, E. Choi, T.H. McCormick, and (2021). The openva toolkit for verbal autopsies. arXiv Preprint arXiv:2109.08244. [ PDF ]
2020 ⇑
Articles Published
Calvert, C., M. Marston, E. Slaymaker, A.C. Crampin, A. Price, N. Klein, K. Herbst, D. Michael, M. Urassa, , C. Ronsmans, and G. Reniers (2020). Direct Maternal Deaths Attributable to HIV in the Era of ART: Evidence from Three Population-based HIV Cohorts with Verbal Autopsy. AIDS 34 (9), 1397-1405. [ DOI ]
Gómez-Olivé, F.X., B. Houle, M.S. Rosenberg, C.W. Kabudula, S. Mojola, J.K. Rohr, , N. Angotti, E.J. Schatz, K. Kahn, T. Bärnighausen, and J. Menken (2020). HIV incidence among older adults in a rural South African setting: 2010-2015. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 85 (1), 18-22. [ DOI ]
Houle, B., S.T. Yu, N. Angotti, E. Schatz, C. Kabudula, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, J. Menken, S. Mojola, and (2020). Clusters of HIV Risk and Protective Sexual Behaviors in Agincourt, Rural South Africa: Findings from the Ha Nakekela Population-Based Study of Ages 15 and Older. Archives of Sexual Behavior 49 (6), 2057-2068. [ DOI ]
Kunihama, T., Z.R. Li, , and T.H. McCormick (2020). Bayesian Factor Models for Probabilistic Cause of Death Assessment with Verbal Autopsies. The Annals of Applied Statistics (Preprint: arXiv:1803.01327v2) 14 (1), 241-256. [ DOI ]
Li, Z.R., T.H. McCormick, and (2020a). Using Bayesian Latent Gaussian Graphical Models to Infer Symptom Associations in Verbal Autopsies. Bayesian Analysis 15 (3), 781-807. [ DOI ]
Li, Z.R., T.H. McCormick, and (2020b). Non-confirming Replication of `Performance of InSilicoVA for Assigning Causes of Death to Verbal Autopsies: Multisite Validation Study using Clinical Diagnostic Gold Standards', BMC Medicine 2018; 16:56. BMC Medicine 18 (69). [ DOI ]
Setel, P., C. AbouZahr, E. B. Atuheire, M. Bratschi, E. Cercone, O. Chinganya, B. Clapham, , C. Congdon, D. de Savigny, A. Karpati, E. Nichols, R. Jakob, J. Mwanza, W. Muhwava, P. Nahmias, E.M. rtiza, A. Tshangelab. (2020). Mortality Surveillance during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 98 (6), 374. [ Link ]
Working Papers
Kline, D., Z. Li, Y. Chu, J. Wakefield, and (2020). Estimating Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus in Ohio: A Bayesian Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Approach with Multiple Imperfect Diagnostic Tests. arXiv Preprint arXiv:2011.09033v2. [ PDF ]
Li, Z.R., B.D. Martin, T.Q. Dong, G.A. Fuglstad, J. Paige, A. Riebler, , and J. Wakefield (2020). Space-Time Smoothing of Demographic and Health Indicators using the R Package SUMMER. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:2007.05117). [ PDF ]
2019 ⇑
Articles Published
Byass, P., L. Hussain-Alkhateeb, L. D'Ambruoso, , J. Davies, E. Fottrell, J. Bird, C. Kabudula, S. Tollman, K. Kahn, L. Schiöler, and M. Petzold (2019). An Integrated Approach to Processing WHO-2016 Verbal Autopsy Data: the InterVA-5 Model. BMC Medicine 17 (102). [ DOI ]
(2019). A General Age-Specific Mortality Model with An Example Indexed by Child or Child/Adult Mortality. Demography 56 (3), 1131-1159. [ DOI ][ Reproducibility Code ]
Jha, P., D. Kumar, R. Dikshit, A. Budukh, R. Begum, P. Sati, P. Kolpak, R. Wen, S.J. Raithatha, U. Shah, Z.R. Li, L. Aleksandrowicz, P. Shah, K. Piyasena, T.H. MccCormick, H. Gelband, and (2019). Automated Versus Physician Assignment of Cause of Death For Verbal Autopsies: Randomized Trial of 9374 Deaths In 117 Villages In India. BMC Medicine 17 (116). [ DOI ]
Li, Z.R., T.H. McCormick, and (2019, June). Bayesian Joint Spike-and-Slab Graphical Lasso. In Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on Machine Learning, Volume 97 of Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, pp. 3877-3885. International Conference on Machine Learning, Long Beach, California, USA. [ li19h.pdf ]
Li, Z., Y. Hsiao, J. Godwin, B. Martin, J. Wakefield, and (2019). Changes in the Spatial Distribution of the Under-Five Mortality Rate: Small-area Analysis of 122 DHS Surveys in 262 Subregions of 35 Countries in Africa. PLoS ONE 14 (1), e0210645. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
, M. Bratschi, P. Setel, C. Abouzahr, D. d. Savigny, Z.R. Li, T.H. McCormick, P. Byass, and D. Chandramohan (2019). Verbal Autopsy in Civil Registration and Vital Statistics: The Symptom-Cause Information Archive. arXiv Preprint arXiv:1910.00405v2. [ PDF ]
2018 ⇑
Articles Published
, J. Wakefield, T.H. McCormick, and M. Ross (2018). Hyak Mortality Monitoring System: Innovative Sampling and Estimation Methods - Proof of Concept by Simulation. Global Health, Epidemiology and Genomics 3 (e3). [ DOI ]
Houle, B., F.X. Gómez-Olivé, N. Angotti, J. Menken, and (2018). Fieldworker Effects on Substance Use Reporting in a Rural South African Setting. Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research 7 (1), 29-39. [ DOI ]
Houle, B., S. Mojola, N. Angotti, E. Schatz, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, , J. Williams, C. Kabudula, S. Tollman, and J. Menken (2018). Sexual Behavior and HIV Risk across the Life Course in Rural South Africa: Trends and Comparisons. AIDS Care 30 (11), 1435-1443. [ DOI ]
Nichols, E. K., P. Byass, D. Chandramohan, , A. D. Flaxman, R. Jakob, J. Leitao, N. Maire, C. Rao, I. Riley, and P. Setel (2018). The WHO 2016 Verbal Autopsy Instrument: An International Standard Suitable for Automated Analysis by InterVA, InsilicoVA, and Tariff 2.0. PLoS Medicine 15 (1), e1002486. [ DOI ]
Pantazis, A. and (2018). A Parsimonious Characterization of Change in Global Age-Specific and Total Fertility Rates. PLoS ONE 13 (e0190574). [ DOI ]
Sharrow, D.J., J. Godwin, Y. He, , and A.E. Raftery (2018). Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries with Generalized HIV/AIDS Epidemics. Population Studies 72 (1), 1-15. [ DOI ]
Wakefield, J., G.A. Fuglstad, A. Riebler, J. Godwin, K. Wilson, and (2018). Estimating Under-Five Mortality in Space and Time in a Developing World Context. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 28 (9), 2614-2634. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
Li, Z.R., T.H. McCormick, and (2019). Bayesian Joint Spike-and-Slab Graphical Lasso. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1805.07051). [ PDF ]
(2018). A Guide to Comparing the Performance of VA Algorithms. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1802.07807). [ PDF ]
, Z.R. Li, and T.H. McCormick (2018). Quantifying the Contributions of Training Data and Algorithm Logic to the Performance of Automated Cause-Assignment Algorithms for Verbal Autopsy. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1803.07141v2). [ PDF ]
Kunihama, T., Z.R. Li, , and T.H. McCormick (2018). Bayesian factor models for probabilistic cause of death assessment with verbal autopsies. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1803.01327). [ PDF ]
Li, Z.R., T.H. McCormick, T. Kunihama, and (2018). Using Bayesian Latent Gaussian Graphical Models to Infer Symptom Associations in Verbal Autopsies. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1711.00877). [ PDF ]
Wakefield, J., G.A. Fuglstad, A. Riebler, J. Godwin, K. Wilson, and (2018). Estimating Under-Five Mortality in Space and Time in a Developing World Context. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1711.00800). [ PDF ]
2017 ⇑
Articles Published
Kabudula, C. W., B. Houle, M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, , and S. Tollman (2017). Progression of the Epidemiological Transition in a Rural South African Setting: Findings from Population Surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013. BMC Public Health 17 (1), 424. [ DOI ]
Kabudula, C.W., B. Houle, M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, S. Tollman, and (2017). Socioeconomic Differences in Mortality in the Antiretroviral Therapy Era in Agincourt, Rural South Africa, 2001-13: A Population Surveillance Analysis. Lancet Global Health 5 (9), e924-e935. [ DOI ]
Reniers, G., S. Blom, J. Lieber, A.J. Herbst, C. Calvert, J. Bor, T. Barnighausen, B. Zaba, Z.R. Li, , A. Grant, R. Lessells, J.W. Eaton, and V. Hosegood (2017). Tuberculosis Mortality and the Male Survival Deficit in Rural South Africa: An Observational Community Cohort Study. PLoS One 12 (10), e0185692. [ DOI ]
Sankoh, O., P. Byass, , P. Bocquier, A. Lopez, D. de Savigny, A. Gage, A. Ekstrom, B. McPake, C. Abouzahr, C. Moyer, H. Campbell, J. Clark, and H. Mwenesi (2017). Why Population-based Data are Crucial to Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. International Journal of Epidemiology, 4-7. [ DOI ]
Sankoh, O., P. Byass, M. Kamanda, S.S. Arthur, M. Bangha, D. Mbulumi, S. Apaliyah, A. Soura, A. Chowdhury, A. Oduro, A. Lopez, A. Diallo, A. Worku, A.A. Gebru, A. Ezeh, A. Sie, A. Crampin, A. age, A.M. Ekstrom, A. Scott, B.P. Nguyen, B. McPake, B. Bonfoh, B. Tariku, C. Abouzahr, C. Moyer, Da. Kajungu, G.A. Bikes, H. Tinto, H. Mwenesi, H. Campbell, H.V. Minh, , J. Odera, K. Herbst, K. Baku, M. Eusebio1, M. Gyapong, M. Alberts, M. Meremikwu, M. Molla, M. Jasseh, N. Assefa, N. Alam, O.M. Oche, P. Lehohla, P. Aaby, P. Bocquier, R. Thompson, R. Newton, S. CLARK, S. Juvekar, S. Kouanda, S. Owusu-Agyei, S. Kant, S. Sodiomon, S. Wilopo, S.M. Manzoor, A. Hanifi, S. Tollman, T.K.C. Nguyen, T. Lutalo, T. Williams, T.K. Toan, T. Corrah, V. Delaunay, W. Otieno, W. Khan, W.M. Abera, M. Tanner. (2017). New INDEPTH strategy for the SDGs using robust population data. Lancet Global Health 5 (7), e647-e648. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
Li, Z.R., T.H. McCormick, T. Kunihama, and (2019). Using Bayesian Latent Gaussian Graphical Models to Infer Symptom Associations in Verbal Autopsies. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1711.00877). [ PDF ]
2016 ⇑
Articles Published
Bawah, A., B. Houle, N. Alam, A. Razzaque, P. K. Streatfield, C. Debpuur, P. Welaga, A. Oduro, A. Hodgson, S. Tollman, M. Collinson, K. Kahn, T.H. Dang, N.T.I. Chuc, O. Sankoh, and (2016). The Evolving Demographic and Health Transition in Four Low-and Middle-Income Countries: Evidence from Four Sites in the INDEPTH Network of Longitudinal Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems. PloS One 11 (6), e0157281. [ DOI ]
Houle, B., N. Angotti, , J. Williams, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, J. Menken, C. Kabudula, K. Klipstein-Grobusch, and S.M. Tollman (2016). Lets Talk about Sex, Maybe Interviewers, Respondents, and Sexual Behavior Reporting in Rural South Africa. Field Methods 28 (2), 112-132. [ DOI ]
Houle, B., A. Pantazis, C. Kabudula, S. Tollman, and (2016). Social Patterns and Differentials in the Fertility Transition Based on Population Surveillance: Rural South Africa, 1993 - 2013. Population Health Metrics 14 (10). [ DOI ]
Kabudula, C. W., B. Houle, M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, S. Tollman, and (2016). Assessing Changes in Household Socioeconomic Status in Rural South Africa, 2001-2013: A Distributional Analysis Using Household Asset Indicators. Social Indicators Research 133, 1047-1073. [ DOI ]
McCormick, T.H., Z.R. Li, C. Calvert, A.C. Crampin, K. Kahn, and (2016). Probabilistic Cause-of-Death Assignment using Verbal Autopsies. Journal of the American Statistical Association 111 (515), 1036-1049. [ DOI ]
Reniers, G., S. Blom, C. Calvert, A. Martin-Onraet, A.J. Herbst, J.W. Eaton, J. Bor, E. Slaymaker, Z.R. Li, , T. Barnighausen, B. Zaba, and V. Hosegood (2016). Trends in the Burden of HIV Mortality after Roll-out of Antiretroviral Therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: an Observational Community Cohort Study. Lancet HIV 4 (3), e113-e121. [ DOI ]
Reniers, G., M. Wamukoya, M. Urassa, A. Nyaguara, J. Nakiyingi-Miiro, T. Lutalo, V. Hosegood, S. Gregson, F.X. Gomez-Olive, E. Geubbels, A.C. Crampin, A. Wringe, L. Waswa, S. Tollman, J. Todd, E. Slaymaker, D. Serwadda, A. Price, S. Oti, M. J. Nyirenda, D. Nabukalu, C. Nyamukapa, F. Nalugoda, O. Mugurungi, B. Mtenga, L. Mills, D. Michael, E. McLean, N. McGrath, E. Martin, M. Marston, S. Maquins, F. Levira, C. Kyobutungi, D. Kwaro, I. Kasamba, C. Kanjala, K. Kahn, C. Kabudula, K. Herbst, D. Gareta, J.W. Eaton, , K. Church, M. Chihana, C. Calvert, D. Beguy, G. Asiki, S. Amri, R. Abdul, and B. Zaba (2016). Data Resource Profile: Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA Network). International Journal of Epidemiology 45 (1), 83-93. [ DOI ]
Wheldon, M., A.E. Raftery, , and P. Gerland (2016). Bayesian Population Reconstruction of Female Populations for Less Developed and Developed Countries. Population Studies 70 (1), 21-37. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
(2016). A General Age-Specific Mortality Model with An Example Indexed by Child or Child/Adult Mortality. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1612.01408v1). [ PDF ]
Sharrow, D.J., J. Godwin, Y. He, , and A.E. Raftery (2016). Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized hiv/aids epidemics. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1609.04383). [ PDF ]
2015 ⇑
Articles Published
, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, B. Houle, M. Thorogood, K. Klipstein-Grobusch, N. Angotti, C. Kabudula, J. Williams, J. Menken, and S. Tollman (2015). Cardiometabolic Disease Risk and HIV Status in Rural South Africa: Establishing a Baseline. BMC Public Health 15 (135). [ DOI ]
Helleringer, S., A. Noymer, , and T.H. McCormick (2015). Did Ebola Relatively 'Spare' Children?. Lancet 386 (10002), 1442-1443. [ DOI ]
Houle, B., , and A. E. Yamin (2015). The Impacts of Maternal Mortality and Cause of Death on Children's Risk of Dying in Rural South Africa: Evidence from a Population based Surveillance Study (1992 - 2013). BMC Reproductive Health 12 (Suppl 1:S7). [ DOI ]
Mercer, L. D., J. Wakefield, A. Pantazis, A. M. Lutambi, H. Masanja, and (2015). Space-time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality. The Annals of Applied Statistics 9 (4), 1889-1905. [ DOI ]
Sankoh, Osman, M. Bangha, J.B.O. Emina, A.J. Herbst, S. Tollman, S. Kant, P. Aaby, A. Chowdhury, V. Delaunay, A. Diallo, W. Khan, K. Streatfield, N. Alam, A. Bhuiya, B.T.T. Ha, M Molla, Y Kebede, M Alberts, T.K. Toan, N.T.K. Chuc, M Gyapong, M Jasseh, F. Tessema, R. Nathan, A. Salim, H. Masanja, S. Punpuing, A. Crampin, M. Nyrienda, S. Kouanda, R.W. Mangen, T. Lutalo, N. Sewankambo, T.N. Williams, J.A. Scott, N. Assefa, Y. Adama, A.A. Gebru, S. Owusu-Agyei, F. Odhiambo, W. Otieno, P. Sifuna, E. Macete, M. Urassa, P. Larson, A. Ezeh, D. Beguy, C. Kyobutungi, H. Tinto, O.M. Oche, A. Oduro, A. Sie, A. Soura, S. Wilopo, S. Sirima, B. Bonfoh, S. Juvekar, B. Sonko, B.P. Nguyen, M. Meremikwu, G. Asiki, R. Thompson, T. Evans, P. Byass, H.O. Adami, H. Campbell, A.M. Ekstrom, H. Mwenesi, D. Ross, C. Mback ́e, C. Moyer, I. Asangansi, P. Bocquier, , A.J. Gage, B. McPake, J. Clark, M. Sturkenboom, D. Weibel, J. Bonhoeffer, D. Dolinger, C. Boehme, Y. Ye, F. Binka, D. de Savigny, K.Z. Long, M. Kaser, A. Karim, D. Mausezahl, and Marcel Tanner (2015). CHESS: An Innovative Concept for a New Generation of Population Surveillance. Lancet Global Health 3)(12), e742. [ DOI ]
Wheldon, M., A. E. Raftery, , and P. Gerland (2015). Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality. Journal of the Royal Statistical Association, Series A 178 (4), 977-1007. [ DOI ]
Zaba, B., G. Reniers, E. Slaymaker, J. Todd, J. Glynn, A. Crampin, M. Urassa, T. Lutalo, M.-L. Newell, V. Hosegood, , and S. Gregson (2015). Understanding Why People Participate in HIV Surveillance. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 93 (5), 356-358. [ Link ]
Working Papers
(2015). A Singular Value Decomposition-based Factorization and Parsimonious Component Model of Demographic Quantities Correlated by Age: Predicting Complete Demographic Age Schedules with Few Parameters. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1504.02057v1). [ PDF ]
McCormick, T.H., Z.R. Li, C. Calvert, A.C. Crampin, K. Kahn, and (2015). Probabilistic cause-of-death assignment using verbal autopsies. arXiv Preprint (arXiv:1411.3042). [ PDF ]
2014 ⇑
Articles Published
Bocquier, P., M.A. Collinson, , K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2014). Ubiquitous Burden: Quantifying the Contribution of Migration to AIDS and Tuberculosis Mortality in Rural South Africa. A Population-Based Surveillance Study. African Population Studies 28 (1), 691-701. [ DOI ]
and B. Houle (2014). Validation, Replication, and Sensitivity Testing of Heckman-type Selection Models to Adjust Estimates of HIV Prevalence. PloS One 9 (11), e112563. [ DOI ]
Collinson, M. A., M. J. White, P. Bocquier, S. McGarvey, S. Afolabi, , K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2014). Migration and the Epidemiological Transition: Insights from the Agincourt Sub-District of Northeast South Africa. Global Health Action 7 (23514). [ DOI ]
Houle, B., , F.X. Gómez-Olivé, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2014). The Unfolding Counter-Transition in Rural South Africa: Mortality by Sex, Age, SES, Time, and Cause of Death, 1994 - 2009. PLoS One 9 (6), e100420. [ DOI ]
McParland, D., I.C. Gormley, , T.H. McCormick, C.W. Kabudula, and M.A. Collinson (2014). Clustering South African Households Based on their Asset Status Using Latent Variable Models. Annals of Applied Statistics 8 (2), 747-776. [ DOI ]
Pantazis, A. and (2014). Male and Female Sterility in Zambia. Demographic Research 30 (14), 413-428. [ DOI ]
Sankoh, O., D. Sharrow, K. Herbst, C.W. Kabudula, N. Alam, S. Kant, H. Ravn, A. Bhuiya, L. T. Vui, T. Darikwa, M. Gyapong, M. Jasseh, N. C. T. Kim, S. Abdullah, A. Crampin, J. Ojal, S. Owusu-Agyei, F. Odhiambo, M. Urassa, K. Streatfield, M. Shimada, C. Sacoor, D. Beguy, K. Derra, G. Wak, V. Delaunay, A. Sie, A. Soura, D. Diallo, S. Wilopo, H. Masanja, B. Bonfoh, S. Phuanukoonnon, and (2014). The INDEPTH Standard Population for Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2013. Global Health Action 7 (23286). [ DOI ]
Sharrow, D.J., , and A.E. Raftery (2014). Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics. PloS One 9 (5), e96447. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
(2014). A singular value decomposition-based factorization and parsimonious component model of demographic quantities correlated by age: Predicting complete demographic age schedules with few parameters. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (143). [ PDF ]
Li, Z., T. McCormick, and (2014). Interva4: An r package to analyze verbal autopsy data. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (146). [ PDF ]
McCormick, T., Z. Li, C. Calvert, A. Crampin, K. Kahn, and (2014). Probabilistic cause-of-death assignment using verbal autopsies. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (147). [ PDF ]
Mercer, L., J. Wakefield, A. Pantazis, A. Lutambi, H. Masanja, and (2014). Small area estimation of child mortality in the absence of vital registration. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (148). [ PDF ]
2013 ⇑
Articles Published
, K. Kahn, B. Houle, A. Arteche, M.A. Collinson, S.M. Tollman, K. Kahn, and A. Stein (2013). Young Children's Probability of Dying Before and After Their Mothers' Death: A Rural Southern African Population-Based Surveillance Study. PLoS Medicine 10 (3), e1001409. [ DOI ]
Gómez-Olivé, F. X., N. Angotti, B. Houle, K. Klipstein-Grobusch, C. Kabudula, J. Menken, J. Williams, S. Tollman, and (2013). Prevalence of HIV among Those 15 and Older in Rural South Africa. AIDS Care 25 (9), 1122-1128. [ DOI ]
Houle, B., A. Stein, K. Kahn, S. Madhavan, M.A. Collinson, S.M. Tollman, and (2013). Household Context and Child Mortality in Rural South Africa: The Effects of Birth Spacing, Shared Mortality, Household Composition, and Socio-Economic Status. International Journal of Epidemiology 42 (5), 1444-1454. [ DOI ]
Sharrow, D., , M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2013). The Age-Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa. Demographic Research 29 (39), 1039-1096. [ DOI ]
Wheldon, M.C., A.E. Raftery, , and P. Gerland (2013). Reconstructing Past Populations with Uncertainty from Fragmentary Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 108 (501), 96-110. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
, T. McCormick, Z. Li, and J. Wakefield (2013). Insilicova: A method to automate cause of death assignment for verbal autopsy. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (133). [ PDF ]
Wheldon, M., A. Raftery, , and P. Gerland (2013). Bayesian reconstruction of two-sex populations by age: Estimating sex ratios at birth and sex ratios of mortality. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (138). [ PDF ]
2012 ⇑
Articles Published
Alkema, L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, , and F. Pelletier (2012). Estimating Trends in the Total Fertility Rate with Uncertainty Using Imperfect Data: Examples from West Africa. Demographic Research 26 (15), 331-362. [ DOI ]
Byass, P., D. Chandramohan, , L. D'Ambruoso, E. Fottrell, W. J. Graham, A.J. Herbst, A. Hodgson, S. Hounton, K. Kahn, A. Krishnan, J. Leita, F. Odhiambo, O.A. Sankoh, S.M. Tollman. (2012). Strengthening Standardised Interpretation of Verbal Autopsy Data: the New InterVA-4 Tool. Global Health Action 5 (1), 19281. [ DOI ]
, J. Thomas, and L. Bao (2012). Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model. Demographic Research 27 (26), 743-774. [ DOI ]
Kahn, K., M.A. Collinson, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, O. Mokoena, R. Twine, P. Mee, S. A. Afolabi, B. D. Clark, C.W. Kabudula, A. Khosa, S. Khoza, M. Shabangu, B. Silaule, J. B. Tibane, R. G. Wagner, M.L. Garenne, , and S.M. Tollman (2012). Profile: Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System. International Journal of Epidemiology 41 (4), 988-1001. [ DOI ]
Madhavan, S., E. Shatz, , and M.A. Collinson (2012). Child Mobility, Maternal Status and Household Composition in Rural South Africa. Demography 49 (2), 699-718. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
and B. Houle (2012a). An application of the biprobit heckman selection model to correct estimates of hiv prevalence from sample surveys. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (119), 32. [ PDF ]
and B. Houle (2012b). Evaluation of heckman selection model method for correcting estimates of hiv prevalence from sample surveys. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (120), 18. [ PDF ]
, J. Wakefield, T. McCormick, and M. Ross (2012). Hyak mortlity monitoring system: Innovative sampling and estimation methods. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (118), 23. [ PDF ]
McParland, D., I. Gormley, , T. McCormick, C. Kabudula, and M. Collinson (2012). Clustering south african households based on their asset status using latent variable models. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (121), 28. [ PDF ]
Wheldon, M.C., A.E. Raftery, and (2012). Bayesian reconstruction of past populations and vital rates by age for developing and developed countries. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (117). [ PDF ]
2011 ⇑
Articles Published
Alkema, L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, , F. Pelletier, and T. Buettner (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography 48 (3), 815-839. [ DOI ]
Thomas, J. and (2011). More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimation Methods. Demographic Research 25 (2), 39-102. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
and D. J. Sharrow (2011). Contemporary model life tables for developed countries: An application of model-based clustering. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (107), 38. [ PDF ]
Wheldon, M.C., A. Raftery, , and P. Gerland (2011). Estimating demographic parameters with uncertainty from fragmentary data. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (108), 39. [ PDF ]
2010 ⇑
Articles Published
Williams, J.R., E.J. Schatz, B.D. Clark, M.A. Collinson, , J. Menken, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2010). Improving Public Health Training and Research Capacity in Africa: A Replicable Model for Linking Training to Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance Data. Global Health Action 3 (5287). [ DOI ]
Working Papers
Alkema, L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, , F. Pelletier, and T. Buettner (2010). Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (97), 62. [ PDF ]
, J. Thomas, and L. Bao (2010). Estimates of age-specific reductions in hiv prevalence in uganda: Bayesian melding estimation and probabilistic population forecast with an hiv-enabled cohort component projection model". Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (106), 49. [ PDF ]
Sharrow, D., , M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2010). The age-pattern of increases in mortality affected by hiv: Bayesian fit of the heligman-pollard model to data from the agincourt health and demographic surveillance system field site in rural northeast south africa. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (102), 54. [ PDF ]
2009 ⇑
Working Papers
Collinson, M. A., , A. A. Gerritsen, P. Byass, K. Kahn, and S. M. Tollman (2009). The dynamics of poverty and migration in a rural south african community, 2001-2005. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (92), 38. [ PDF ]
2008 ⇑
Articles Published
Cassels, S., , and M. Morris (2008). Mathematical Models for HIV Transmission Dynamics: Tools for Social and Behavioral Science Research. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes (JAIDS) 47 (Supplement 1), S34-S39. [ DOI ]
Tollman, S.M., K. Kahn, B. K. Sartorius, M.A. Collinson, , and M.L. Garenne (2008). Implications of Mortality Transition for Primary Health Care in Rural South Africa: A Population-based Surveillance Study. Lancet 372, 893-901. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
Alkema, L., A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, , and F. Pelletier (2008). Estimating the total fertility rate from multiple imperfect data sources and assessing its uncertainty. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (89), 21. [ PDF ]
, J. Eaton, M. M. Elmquist, N. R. Ottenweiller, and J. K. Snavely (2008). Demographic consequences of hiv epidemics and effects of different male circumcision intervention designs: Suggestive findings from microsimulation. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (85), 49. [ PDF ]
Thomas, J. and (2008). More on the cohort-component model of population projection in the context of hiv/aids: A leslie matrix representation and new estimation methods. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (88), 38. [ PDF ]
2007 ⇑
Articles Published
Alkema, L., A.E. Raftery, and (2007). Probabilistic Projections of HIV Prevalence Using Bayesian Melding. The Annals of Applied Statistics 1 (1), 229-248. [ DOI ]
(2007). An Introduction to the General Temporal Data Model and the Structured Population Event History Register. Scandanavian Journal of Public Health 35 (Suppl 69), 21-25. [ DOI ]
, M. Collinson, K. Kahn, S. Tollman, and K. Drullinger (2007). Returning Home to Die: Circular Labour Migration and Mortality in South Africa. Scandanavian Journal of Public Health 35 (Suppl 69), 35-44. [ DOI ]
Kahn, K., S. Tollman, M.A. Collinson, , R. Twine, B. D. Clark, M. Shabangu, F.X. Gómez-Olivé, O. Mokoena, and M. Garenne (2007). Research into Health, Population, and Social Transitions in Rural South Africa: Data and Methods of the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health 35 (Suppl 69), 8-20. [ DOI ]
Working Papers
Alkema, L., A.E. Raftery, and (2007). Probabilistic projections of hiv prevalence using bayesian melding. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) Working Paper Series (69), 19. [ PDF ]
2006 ⇑
Articles Published
Adjuik, M., T. Smith, , J. Todd, A. Garrib, Y. Kinfu, K. Kahn, M. Mola, A. Ashraf, H. Masanja, U. Adazu, J. Sacarlal, N. Alam, A. Marra, A. Gbangou, E. Mwageni, and F. Binka (2006). Cause-Specific Mortality Rates in Sub-Saharan Africa and Bangladesh. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 84 (3), 181-188. [ Link ]
(2006). A General Temporal Data Model and the Structured Population Event History Register. Demographic Research 15 (7), 181-252. [ DOI ]
2005 ⇑
Articles Published
Benzler, J. and (2005). Toward a Unified Timestamp with Explicit Precision. Demographic Research 12 (6), 107-140. [ DOI ]
2004 ⇑
Articles Published
Hargreaves, J. R., M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, , and S.M. Tollman (2004). Childhood Mortality among Former Mozambican Refugees and Their Hosts in Rural South Africa. International Journal of Epidemiology 33, 1271-1278. [ DOI ]
2001 ⇑
PhD
(2001). An Investigation into the Impact of HIV on Population Dynamics in Africa. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Pennsylvania. [ PDF ] [ PDF with Color Figures ]
1995 ⇑
Articles Published
, E. Colson, J. Lee, and T. Scudder (1995). Ten Thousand Tonga: A Longitudinal Anthropological Study from Southern Zambia: 1956-1991. Population Studies 49 (1), 91-109. [ DOI ]